分析了几种备件需求函数及其适应范围;针对小样本数据,构建了运用层次分析法对**备件需求进行专家评判的三级递阶结构模型,提出了一种基于专家评判和贝叶斯理论的需求分布函数确定方法;通过该方法对后验分布进行检验,有效地利用了先验信息,可以被看作是传统预测方法的推广和延伸;最后通过实例验证了该研究的正确性和可行性。

Several demand functions and the applied ranges of the spare parts are analyzed. Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP), a three-level hierarchical model was established for expert assessment on weaponry spare parts under the condition with small sample data. A method for confirming the aposteriori demand model was put forward based on expert assessment (by AHP) and Bayesian theorem. The method was used in test of posterior distribution. The apriority information was utilized effectively in the method, which can be regarded as prolongation of the traditional forecast method. An example proved the validity and feasibility of the research.