为确保**装备的可靠性,需定期或不定期地对其性能进行监测,且每次监测需要多次测试.针对**装备贮存寿命预测中未考虑测试影响,由此造成直接使用监测的性能退化数据进行贮存寿命预测时预测结果不准确的问题,提出一种考虑测试影响的**装备贮存寿命预测方法.该方法根据**装备在贮存期间是否监测将其退化过程分为贮存状态和工作状态,据此建立了一种新的退化模型,通过贝叶斯理论和EM算法将反映贮存状态和工作状态的退化模型参数进行分离,得到了贮存寿命的预测结果.最后,通过装备性能监测数据对其在贮存期间的退化轨迹进行了预测,且与传统贮存寿命预测方法进行了比较,验证了所提方法的实用性和有效性.

In order to ensure the reliability and availability of weapons and military equipment,regular or irregular tests are needed to monitor their performance,and each test requires multiple measurements.Normally,the impact of measurement is not considered in the storage life prediction of the weapons and military equipment,which may result in inaccurate prediction of the storage life due to using directly the performance degradation data.This paper proposes a method for storage life prediction taking the impact of measurement into consideration.According to whether it is tested or not during storage,the degradation process is divided into the storage condition and the working condition.Based on which,a new degradation model is established.Then,the degradation model parameters reflecting working condition and storage condition are separated by Bayesian theory and the EM algorithm,and the prediction result of storage life is obtained.A degradation trajectory during storage is predicted through equipment performance testing data,and is compared with that of the conventional life prediction method.The result verifies the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed method.