针对低空自由飞行目标航迹预测问题，提出从战略与战术两层面综合考虑的方法。基于ADS-B监视数据TC报告，考虑目标多重状态参量偏移值，引入衰减记忆和移动窗口平滑模型综合历史信息，实现适合于低空飞行特点的飞行意图推断，规划出战略预测航迹。同时,依据一种新型跟踪监视算法，提出战术与战略预测相结合的航迹混合预测思想，预测目标未来中远期航迹。

Considering the problem of trajectory prediction of low-altitude free flight targets,a new method was proposed from both strategic and tactical considerations.Based on TC report from surveillance data by ADS-B,multi-parameter offset value of target were taken into consideration,and the fading memory and moving window smoothing model were introduced into comprehensive historical information.The flight intent inference was achieved,which was suitable for low-altitude flight,then the trajectory by strategic prediction was obtained.A trajectory prediction idea based on both tactical prediction and strategic prediction was also proposed according to a new algorithm for tracking and monitoring,which can be used for predict the medium and long term future trajectory of a target.