电光与控制, 2017, 24 (2): 95, 网络出版: 2017-02-23
运行状态切换下的设备剩余寿命预测
Remaining Life Estimation for Products with Operation State Switching
剩余寿命估计 运行状态切换 马尔可夫过程 随机系数回归 remaining life estimation operation state switching Markov process random coefficient regression
摘要
在工程实际中,很多系统在其寿命周期中都存在贮存和工作状态的切换,且运行状态的切换对设备的退化过程有较大影响,而当前缺少相应的研究。鉴于此,本文系统考虑了运行状态切换和状态持续时间的随机性以及不同状态有不同退化率等关键问题,利用连续时间马尔可夫链(CTMC)建立了刻画贮存-工作状态切换的系统运行模型,得到运行状态切换时间、切换次数、状态持续时间的联合概率分布,并将其融入随机系数回归模型,实现退化系统的剩余寿命估计。仿真试验表明,所提方法能有效实现运行状态切换下的系统剩余寿命估计。
Abstract
There are many industrial systems that may experience operating state switches between storage and usage throughout their whole life-cycle, and it has been proved that the operation switches have great influence on equipment's degradation process.However, the issue of remaining useful life estimation for such kind of systems is seldom founded in the literatures.In this paper, some key problems are systematically analyzed, such as the stochastic characteristics of the operation state switches, the lasting time of each state, and the difference in the degradation rates in each state.Particularly, a two-state Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC) is presented to approximate the switches between the states of usage and storage.Then the CTMC is integrated into the random coefficient regression model to realize the remaining life estimation.A simulation experiment shows that the presented approach can effectively realize the system's remaining life estimation under the condition of the operation state switches.
周绍华, 胡昌华, 司小胜, 张正新, 裴洪. 运行状态切换下的设备剩余寿命预测[J]. 电光与控制, 2017, 24(2): 95. ZHOU Shao-hua, HU Chang-hua, SI Xiao-sheng, ZHANG Zheng-xin, PEI Hong. Remaining Life Estimation for Products with Operation State Switching[J]. Electronics Optics & Control, 2017, 24(2): 95.