通过分析舰载防空导弹**系统拦截反舰导弹的典型作战流程和舰空导弹战斗部的毁伤机理, 对战斗部预置破片的运动特性进行量化分析, 建立破片的面密度模型, 以Pk/h函数作为描述毁伤准则建立舰空导弹一次拦截反舰导弹的毁伤概率模型, 运用马尔可夫过程理论建立多次拦截反舰导弹的毁伤概率模型,并通过实例仿真分析, 验证了模型的可行性、可靠性, 提出了优化舰空导弹拦截反舰导弹策略的意见, 为指挥员制定作战方案提供了有效的帮助和支撑。

By analyzing the typical operational processes of ship-borne anti-missile system in intercepting anti-ship missile and the damaging mechanism of the warhead of the ship-to-air missile,a quantitative analysis is made to the motion characteristics of the warhead preposed fragments,and the surface density model of the fragment is established. Pk/h function is used as the damage describing criterion to establish the damage probability model of the ship-to-air missile for one interception of anti-ship missile;and Markov chain is used for establishing the damage probability model of multiple interceptions.The feasibility and reliability of the model have been verified by the simulation analysis.Some suggestions are given for optimizing the intercepting strategy,which can provide a reference for the commanders to make operational plans.